NEW DELHI: Can the INDIA bloc keep its flock together in Jharkhand to thwart BJP-led NDA’s Rajya Sabha challenge in the state? Or will we see a re-run of Bihar and Odisha, where the BJP, helped by cross-voting, managed to spring a surprise by winning one extra seat each in both the states in March this year?Well, the stage is set for a keen contest of numbers on the floor of Jharkhand assembly tomorrow when the MLAs vote to select two Rajya Sabha members from the state. There are three candidates in the fray: JMM’s Baidyanath Ram, Congress’s Pranav Jha and BJP-backed Independent nominee Parimal Nathwani.
The numbers game
A candidate is required to get a minimum of 28 first-preference votes to emerge victorious in the June 18 polls. The BJP-led NDA has 24 MLAs in the Jharkhand assembly, while the INDIA bloc has 56 members, which includes 34 of Hemant Soren’s JMM and 16 of the Congress and four of the RJD.The ruling INDIA bloc has the exact number of votes needed to win two Rajya Sabha seats. But what should have been an easy election for the INDIA bloc has been turned into a keen contest with the BJP-led NDA deciding to enter the fray through an independent candidate despite not having enough numbers to win a seat on its own.The BJP has made the election interesting by backing independent candidate Parimal Nathwani. Nathwani has already served two terms in Rajya Sabha from Jharkhand. While the JMM’s Baidyanath Ram is expected to win easily, all eyes are on the second seat, in which there could be a tough fight between Congress’s Jha and NDA-backed Nathwani.
Resort politics
Both the ruling and the opposition camp are leaving no stone unturned to keep their MLAs intact ahead of tomorrow’s polling. The NDA MLAs were shifted to a hotel in Ranchi on Tuesday, while the ruling INDIA bloc is also keeping a close watch on its MLAs and had held meetings to prevent cross-voting.The NDA stepped up preparations to ensure unity among its MLAs and familiarise them with the voting process. MLAs of the alliance were briefed on the voting procedure on Wednesday and trained through a mock poll to minimise the possibility of any technical errors during voting.BJP state president Aditya Sahu, leader of opposition Babulal Marandi, and Parimal Nathwani, among others, were present during the exercise.Meanwhile, the ruling INDIA bloc MLAs, including those from the Congress, also participated in a mock poll during a meeting at chief minister Hemant Soren’s residence on Tuesday night to make the new legislators aware of the voting exercise.
Both camps confident
The INDIA bloc and the NDA are both confident of a win in tomorrow’s poll. “We all 56 MLAs of the INDIA bloc are united, and we will win both the Rajya Sabha seats,” Congress MLA Suresh Baitha said. However, the BJP chief whip in Jharkhand Naveen Jaiswal also claimed victory for their supported candidate. BJP state chief Sahu also asserted that all NDA MLAs are united and will extend full support to Parimal Nathwani. He expressed confidence that Nathwani’s victory is “100 per cent certain”. “Several MLAs from the opposition camp will vote as per their conscience and in the larger national interest,” the state BJP chief claimed.The Congress, in a bid to prevent cross-voting, has appointed its state-in-charge K Raju as the party’s polling agent for tomorrow’s voting.
Will BJP spring a surpise like it did in Bihar, Odisha?
In March this year, the INDIA bloc suffered a shock defeat in Rajya Sabha elections in Bihar when the Mahagathbandhan candidate of the RJD failed to win due to cross-voting by one party MLA and 3 Congress MLAs. The four legislators did not turn up to vote. Had the four voted, the RJD candidate would have secured 41 votes against the required threshold of 40. But due to cross-voting he could poll only 37 and BJP ended up winning an extra seat.An almost identical story played out in Odisha. The BJP here gained a bonus seat after the BJD suffered a shock defeat due to cross voting. Eight BJD members and three Congress MLAs cross-voted to help BJP-backed Independent Dilip Ray win a Rajya Sabha seat defeating BJD and Congress’s joint candidate Datteswar Hota. The outcome was a blow to BJD chief Naveen Patnaik, who had led the BJD’s strategy to keep the legislature party united.
Why it is difficult to prevent cross-voting in RS elections
Voting in elections for Rajya Sabha members is unique in the sense that it is not through a secret ballot. This change happened after an amendment in the Representation of the People Act in 2003. Ironically, this amendment was introduced to prevent cross-voting. However, the change failed to make an impact. As experienced in several RS elections, it is still difficult to prevent cross-voting as the political parties cannot issue directions or whips to their members to vote in a particular manner or not to vote. The legislators are supposed to show their vote to the party polling agent, but they cannot be prevented from voting against their party candidates. This makes it difficult to prevent cross-vote during the election. However, as Supreme Court lawyer and constitutional expert Gyanant Singh says “the parties have the option of taking action against the rebels under the anti-defection laws after the election is over.” “When a MLA votes against the party candidate he/she is openly taking a stand against the party line and hence becomes liable for anti-party action,” Gyanant Singh says.
What will happen in Jharkhand tomorrow?
So, the big question is will the INDIA bloc manage to hold its ranks in Jharkhand and prevent cross-voting in tomorrow’s election? Well, it will be very interesting to see how the ruling coalition in Jharkhand keeps its flock together. Chief minister Hemant Soren and the Congress would be closely watching not just their MLAs but also the four MLAs of the RJD. Interestingly, Lalu Prasad’s party has 4 MLAs and the BJP-led NDA needs just 4 to upset the Congress nominee and ensure victory for their independent candidate. So, the NDA will keep its fingers crossed till the results are out tomorrow evening.
